‘TRIFFIN 21’
An Initiative revisiting the arguments for a global monetary anchor
Terms of reference for an international colloquium in Turin, Italy
The present international economic and financial crisis is the unmistakable symptom of systemic diseases and unresolved inconsistencies in the global economy.
In the last decades, international trade and financial flows have experienced an unprecedented expansion. Deep changes have occurred in the global landscape, with the emergence of relevant new global economic actors (notably the so called ‘BRIC’: Brazil, Russia, India, China), the successful introduction of the euro, and increasing stress in international monetary relationships.
The inability of the United States to tackle in an orderly way its ‘twin deficits’ (in the current account and in the budget) has shown to the world that the so-called ‘Triffin Dilemma’ is still unresolved: when the main international standard and reserve currency is a national currency there is an insurmountable inconsistency between domestic and global policy needs. This inconsistency led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and has not been resolved under the dollar-based non-system that followed.
A consensus has emerged about some factors at the origin of the present crisis, such as the growing imbalances in current accounts transactions, the inadequacies in financial regulations and supervision, the systemic risk generated by the excess of leverage combined to the development of over-risky financial products, etc. However, there is still a lack of recognition – by policy makers - of the fundamental role played by a flaw in the present monetary arrangements. As long as this flaw is not addressed, one can not expect to achieve lasting financial stability and sustainable economic growth.
The Compagnia di San Paolo, an Italian foundation with a strong focus on European and international issues, and the Fondation internationale Triffin (Triffin International Foundation), created in the 1990’s to preserve the intellectual heritage of the Belgian/US economist Robert Triffin and to address the new problems of our global economy in the light of his ideas to, are planning to organize in Turin, Italy , an international colloquium in 2010 to bring together different views of scholars and policy-makers, all united by the common will of developing a multilateral approach to international economic and monetary issues. The colloquium will provide an opportunity to contribute to shaping the reform agenda for the coming years, not only for European policy-makers, but on a global scale as well.
In view of the above, the Compagnia di San Paolo and the Triffin International Foundation are inviting economists to send written contributions in two areas which constitute the necessary premise of any reform proposal: on the one side, analyzing the un-sustainability of the present monetary arrangements as a systemic root of the current crisis, and, on the other side, identifying the requirements of a stable international monetary system.
Fondation internationale Triffin
October 2009
Voir aussi le texte de la conférence donnée par Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa le 25 février 2010