Christophe Ley, Ghent University

An alternative ranking for national soccer teams based on strength parameters

Abstract:

The FIFA ranking of national (male) soccer teams suffers from various drawbacks that cause heated debates, all-the-more as this ranking governs the seating in the international tournaments and the associated qualification rounds. In this talk, I shall discuss and compare various alternative models based on strength parameters that are determined by maximum likelihood estimation as well as the ELO model used for the women's FIFA ranking. Predictive performance will be the main measure of comparison since, contrary to regular league rankings, the FIFA ranking is designed to measure the current strength of teams, hence should allow accurate predictions of future matches. The best performing model is used to build the alternative FIFA ranking and to post-analyze the 2016 European Championship (EURO2016).