Econometrics Seminar: Dimitra Kyriakopoulou

Exponential-type GARCH models with linear-in-variance risk premium

Dimitra Kyriakopoulou, CORE

One of the implications of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is that the risk premium of the market portfolio is a linear function of its variance. Yet, estimation theory of classical GARCH-in-mean models with linear-in-variance risk premium requires strong assumptions and is incomplete. We show that exponential-type GARCH models such as EGARCH or Log-GARCH are more natural in dealing with linear-in-variance risk premia. For the popular and more difficult case of EGARCH-in-mean, we derive conditions for the existence of a unique stationary and ergodic solution and invertibility following a stochastic recurrence equation approach. We then show consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi maximum likelihood estimator under weak moment assumptions. An empirical application estimates the dynamic risk premia of a variety of stock indices using both EGARCH-M and Log-GARCH-M models.

(with C. M. Hafner)

(also  job-market paper presentation)